The Week 11 NFL schedule has one marquee matchup in Dallas vs. Kansas City, but there are plenty of other storylines as well. Four games in total have two teams above .500 pitted against each other.
What are the best picks for Sunday? Look for it to be a pretty entertaining week with a lot of close games for the most part. There might be a blowout or two, but not as many as in the past few weeks.
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Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills -7
With Carson Wentz healthy again, it seems like the Indianapolis Colts are much better than their record makes them appear. They have played well with their main quarterback leading the charge, and Jonathan Taylor is handling the running game again as well.
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They will have their hands full going to Buffalo and facing the toughest defense statistically in the NFL. As good as the Buffalo Bills look this year, it seems like winning by a touchdown might be a bit much. But finds a way to win, but Indianapolis never gives up and keeps it close.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts +7
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears
Baltimore Ravens -5
The Baltimore Ravens suffered one of the most embarrassing losses in the NFL season last week to the Miami Dolphins. Now, they face another very winnable game in Chicago. Even if the Bears are coming off a bye week, the year has been an overall struggle for them.
To put themselves in position for a playoff run, Baltimore can’t let this one slip away. Lamar Jackson will find a way to put up some points early in this match-up to give Baltimore a comfortable lead. They win by more than a touchdown, and get back on track as far as the playoff hunt is concerned.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -5
Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns -12.5
The Detroit Lions didn’t lose last week, which has been a big issue for the franchise all season long. They didn’t look great, but they tied the Pittsburgh Steelers, and now they look to go to Cleveland and keep things close again.
Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns didn’t look so hot last week, but now they get the worst team in the NFL record-wise. It probably won’t come down to Mayfield himself, as Cleveland will exploit Detroit’s running defense on the ground. It makes sense since Detroit is one of the worst in defending the run. Nick Chubb comes back from COVID-19 protocols, making it a pretty easy win for the Browns. Taking them to win by more than 12.5 points is a bit risky, but they seem to take care of business against bad teams in 2021.
Pick: Cleveland Browns -12.5
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans -10
Tennessee is still trying to figure out their running game with all the injuries they piled up. It’s been a pretty lackluster past few weeks, but they do get one of the best teams to go up against in the Houston Texans.
Can Adrian Peterson and D’onta Foreman find a way to get Tennessee heading in the right direction? They do enough to win, but Tennessee isn’t putting up the same type of offense as in the past. Take Houston to keep this game in single digits, but the home team still finds a way to win.
Pick: Houston Texans +10
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay Packers -1
Record-wise, this seems like a mismatch. Green Bay has one of the best records in the NFL, while the Minnesota Vikings are below .500. However, Minnesota seems to keep every single game close, and going up against a rival at home will be no different.
Minnesota still knows that they can make the playoffs if they turn things around. This will be a big way of doing so in a pretty even match-up. Can they exploit Green Bay’s defense and put up some points early? If they can, they’ll pull off the upset. Green Bay has been sliding by a little too easily this year since Week 1, and this is when they slip up again.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings +1
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Miami Dolphins -3.5
This will be one of the hardest matchups to predict, as both teams have very little incentive to win at this point in the year. Miami is coming off a pretty impressive win against the Baltimore Ravens, but putting together any type of consistency seems like a long shot.
As for the New York Jets, they will once again rely on Mike White to do something with the offense. He threw interception after interception last week, and Miami could turn that into some points this week.
Since there is a chance of New York winning the game straight up, take the home team as the underdog. It is one of those games that will be pretty hard to predict overall, but the New York Jets might be able to pull out a victory.
Pick: New York Jets +3.5
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5
It’s the middle of November, and the Philadelphia Eagles are still looking for their first home victory of the season. They’ve been very inconsistent the entire year, but going up against a backup quarterback should ease things a little bit, right?
New Orleans is not at their best right now, but Trevor Siemian has shown that he can at least control the game a little bit with his passing. He doesn’t take huge chances, but ball control keeps them in the game. Considering they are the underdogs and might win straight up, New Orleans seems like the best pick in this one. It’s tough to count on Philadelphia to do much of anything this year.
Pick: New Orleans Saints +2.5
Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers -3
This is one of the biggest toss-up games of the week, as either team could pull off this win. It might not have a lot to do with playoff implications, but there is still some excitement surrounding this contest. The biggest story will be Cam Newton’s return to his old stadium for the first time since joining the Panthers in the middle of the season.
Washington certainly looked impressive beating Tampa Bay last week, but Carolina has more to play for if they want to get into the playoffs. Take the home team to ride the momentum and cover as well.
Pick: Carolina Panthers -3
San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars
San Francisco 49ers -6.5
The San Francisco 49ers are the better team in this match-up. That doesn’t necessarily mean everything, as they have some hurdles to overcome that traditionally are tough in the NFL. For starters, they had a short week. They also have a cross-country flight to Jacksonville, playing against a team that is showing some improvement. They are still pretty bad, but at least competitive.
It will take a huge effort for Jacksonville to pull off a win, but they have been keeping every game close. That’s enough reason to take the home team and hope they keep it closer than a touchdown.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders
Cincinnati Bengals -1
This is a big game for both teams and their playoff aspirations. Cincinnati looked like they were the biggest surprise of the NFL season just a couple of weeks ago, but they suffered terrible back-to-back losses before their bye week. Now, they travel to Las Vegas to play a hungry team looking to pick up a win of their own.
Can Joe Burrow and his squad turn around the offense? It comes down to ball control. Burrow has been very solid when he doesn’t take too many crazy chances with deep passes. He’s young and is still trying to learn how to stay somewhat conservative, so it’s not a guarantee he’ll be in control Sunday. With that said, they are still more consistent than the Raiders, so take the road team to keep it close and win.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -1
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals -1.5
Kyler Murray remains a game-time decision for the Arizona Cardinals. He’s a big part of their offense, so it’s hard to predict exactly what will happen without that knowledge. If he does play, Arizona will win and cover on the road relatively easily. If he doesn’t, this game is very challenging to pick.
Seattle looked dreadful last week in Russell Wilson’s return, but that can be chalked up to a little bit of rust. They know that this is a big matchup with playoff implications, so they’ll have to get something going early against Arizona if they want to have a chance.
It’s tempting to take Arizona with or without Murray, but wait as long as possible to see if the quarterback suits up. Arizona is the better team at full strength, but no one knows for sure if they will be.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals -1.5
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
The game of the week, and arguably of the regular season. This Sunday afternoon game features a Dallas Cowboys team that has looked dominant all season long, and a rejuvenated Kansas City Chiefs roster ready to show everyone they are Super Bowl contenders again.
Dallas enters with the top seed in the NFC, but they know it will be a crazy atmosphere in Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes looks like the former MVP more and more each week, including back-to-back victories against the Las Vegas Raiders and Green Bay Packers.
All signs seem to indicate that this will be a close match-up overall. When in doubt, take the home team in that scenario, as the atmosphere might be one of the best the NFL has seen since COVID-19. Mahomes keeps things going by outdueling Dak Prescott in a shootout.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers -5.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers looked lost last week in a tie to the Detroit Lions. They were without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, but that’s no excuse considering they were going up against such a struggling team. Things get a lot tougher this week as they travel to Los Angeles to play the Chargers.
Los Angeles hasn’t been dominant at home like one would think, but they’ve had a pretty tough schedule overall. They know that if they want to be serious playoff contenders, they need to win games like this. Even if Rothlisberger comes back and is healthy, it doesn’t seem like Pittsburgh will have any answers on the road.
Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -5.5