Orioles vs. Rays Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/28/2022

The Baltimore Orioles will look to pick up their 50th win of the season when they take on the Tampa Bay Rays (53-45) Thursday. The game begins at 12:35 PM ET, with the Orioles listed as -121 favorites on the moneyline. Baltimore’s Jordan Lyles gets the start, and he’ll go against Tampa Bay’s Ryan Yarbrough.

Orioles vs. Rays Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Orioles vs. Rays

After taking a look at all of the key stats and trends for this matchup, our best bet is the Rays on the moneyline at +102. Our computer picks see the scoring going over the total of 9 runs.

Our computer pick: Tampa Bay Rays (+102) and Over (9)

Orioles vs. Rays Game Info

• Baltimore Orioles probable starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles
• Tampa Bay Rays probable starting pitcher: Ryan Yarbrough
• Game Day: Thursday, July 28, 2022
• Game Time: 12:35 PM ET
• Location: Baltimore, Maryland
• Stadium: Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Pitching Matchup

Orioles Starter Jordan Lyles

• Lyles (6-8) takes the mound for the Orioles in his 21st start of the season. He’s put together a 4.87 ERA in 112 2/3 innings pitched, with 93 strikeouts.
• The righty last pitched on Saturday against the New York Yankees, when he tossed 5 2/3 innings, allowing three earned runs while giving up eight hits.
• The 31-year-old has an ERA of 4.87, with 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings, in 20 games this season. Opposing hitters have a .282 batting average against him.
• Lyles has eight quality starts under his belt this season.
• Lyles will try to pick up his 18th outing of five or more innings pitched this season. He averages 5.2 innings per appearance.
• The opposing Rays offense has the 21st-ranked slugging percentage (.383) and is 23rd in MLB play with 91 home runs. It has a collective .240 batting average, and is 17th in MLB with 792 total hits and 22nd in MLB action scoring 410 runs.
• Head-to-head against the Rays this season, Lyles has pitched 7 2/3 innings, giving up 11 earned runs on 13 hits while striking out seven.
• The 31-year-old ranks 59th in ERA (4.87), 61st in WHIP (1.447), and 46th in K/9 (7.4) among qualifying pitchers in MLB play this season.

Rays Starter Ryan Yarbrough

• Yarbrough (0-5) will take to the mound for the Rays and make his eighth start of the season.
• The left-hander last pitched on Saturday against the Kansas City Royals, throwing 4 2/3 innings of relief while giving up three earned runs and allowing six hits.
• The 30-year-old has an ERA of 5.61 and 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings with an opponent batting average of .301 in 10 games this season.
• He has one quality starts in seven chances this season.
• Yarbrough has five starts of five or more innings this season in seven chances. He averages 4.1 innings per outing.
• The Orioles are batting .234 this season, 24th in MLB. They have a team slugging percentage of .386 (19th in the league) with 101 home runs.
• The Orioles have gone 11-for-37 with five doubles and three RBI in two games against the left-hander this season.

Orioles Betting Picks & Insights

• This season, the Orioles have won seven out of the 10 games in which they’ve been favored.
• Baltimore has a record of 5-1 in games where bookmakers favor them by at least -121 on the moneyline.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Orioles have a 54.8% chance to win.
• Baltimore and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 45 of their 99 opportunities.
• In 99 games with a spread this season, the Orioles are 65-34-0 ATS.

Rays Betting Picks & Insights

• The Rays have been chosen as underdogs in 31 games this year and have walked away with the win 14 times (45.2%) in those games.
• This season, Tampa Bay has been victorious nine times in 21 chances when named as an underdog of at least +102 or longer on the moneyline.
• The Rays have an implied victory probability of 49.5% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
• Contests with Tampa Bay have gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 48 of 98 chances this season.
• In 98 games with a line this season, the Rays have a mark of 44-54-0 against the spread.

Orioles Leaders & Batting Stats

• Cedric Mullins is hitting .260 with 23 doubles, a triple, eight home runs and 31 walks.
• Mullins’ home runs rank him 143rd in MLB, and he ranks 85th in RBI.
• Anthony Santander has hit 17 home runs with 51 runs batted in. Both are team-highs.
• Santander ranks 30th in home runs and 36th in RBI in the major leagues.
• Santander carries a seven-game streak with at least one hit into this matchup. During his last 10 games he is batting .250 with three doubles, two home runs, a walk and eight RBI.
• Austin Hays is hitting .260 with 23 doubles, a triple, 12 home runs and 22 walks.
• Ryan Mountcastle is hitting .254 with 21 doubles, 14 home runs and 19 walks.

Rays Leaders & Batting Stats

• Yandy Diaz leads the team in batting average with a high-water mark of .294.
• Diaz’s home run total puts him 249th in the majors, and he ranks 164th in RBI.
• Randy Arozarena has collected 47 runs batted in to pace his team.
• Arozarena is 69th among all hitters in the majors in home runs, and 52nd in RBI.
• Ji-Man Choi is batting .266 with 16 doubles, eight home runs and 40 walks.
• Isaac Paredes has a team-high 14 home runs.