Orioles vs. Red Sox Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 9/11/2022

by | Sep 11, 2022

Jesus Aguilar is on the brink of his 100th hit of the season for the Baltimore Orioles (73-66) as they get set to take on the Boston Red Sox (68-72) on Sunday. The Orioles enter the matchup as -127 favorites on the moneyline, and action gets underway from Oriole Park at Camden Yards at 1:05 PM ET. Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish gets the start, and he’ll go against Boston’s Rich Hill.

Orioles vs. Red Sox Spread and Betting Line

Orioles vs Red Sox Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Orioles -127 +107 8.5 -104 -117 -1.5 +142 -144

Computer Predictions for Orioles vs. Red Sox

Our best bet is the Red Sox on the moneyline at +107 after looking at all of the key statistics and trends for this matchup. Our computer projects the total score will over the total of 8.5 runs.

Our computer pick: Boston Red Sox (+107) and Over (8.5)

Orioles vs. Red Sox Game Info

  • Baltimore Orioles probable starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish
  • Boston Red Sox probable starting pitcher: Rich Hill
  • Game Day: Sunday, September 11, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:05 PM ET
  • Location: Baltimore, Maryland
  • Stadium: Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Pitching Matchup

Bradish Hill
18 GS 21
3-5 W-L 6-6
5.30 ERA 4.79
90.0 IP 97.2
34 BB 30
87 SO 79

Orioles Starter Kyle Bradish

  • The Orioles will send Bradish (3-5) out to make his 19th start of the season. He is 3-5 with a 5.30 ERA and 87 strikeouts in 90 innings pitched.
  • In his last appearance on Tuesday, the righty threw 3 2/3 innings against the Toronto Blue Jays, giving up three earned runs while surrendering six hits.
  • The 25-year-old has put up a 5.30 ERA and 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings in 18 games this season, while giving up a batting average of .290 to his opponents.
  • Bradish is trying to pick up his fifth quality start of the season.
  • Bradish is looking to secure his 10th start of five or more innings this season in this game.
  • The opposing Red Sox offense has a collective .260 batting average, and is second in the league with 1261 total hits and seventh in MLB play with 643 runs scored. It has the eighth-ranked slugging percentage (.412) and ranks 19th in home runs (133) in all of MLB.
  • Head-to-head against the Red Sox this season, Bradish has thrown 13 1/3 innings, giving up 11 earned runs on 20 hits while striking out 10.

Red Sox Starter Rich Hill

  • The Red Sox will send Hill (6-6) to the mound for his 22nd start this season.
  • The left-hander gave up five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings pitched on Tuesday in his last outing, a matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays.
  • The 42-year-old has an ERA of 4.79 and 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings with an opponent batting average of .264 in 21 games this season.
  • He has four quality starts in 21 chances this season.
  • In 21 starts, Hill has pitched through or past the fifth inning nine times. He has a season average of 4.2 frames per outing.
  • The Orioles have scored 583 runs this season, which ranks 19th in MLB. They have 1098 hits, 21st in baseball, with 147 home runs (15th in the league).
  • The left-hander has allowed the Orioles to go 8-for-31 with a double, two triples, two home runs and six RBI in eight innings this season.

Orioles Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Orioles have won 15, or 71.4%, of the 21 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • Baltimore has entered 14 games this season favored by -127 or more and is 10-4 in those contests.
  • The bookmakers’ moneyline implies a 55.9% chance of a victory for the Orioles.
  • Baltimore and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 62 of their 140 opportunities.
  • The Orioles are 90-50-0 against the spread in their 140 chances this season.

Red Sox Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Red Sox have been underdogs in 69 games this season and have come away with the win 26 times (37.7%) in those contests.
  • This season, Boston has been victorious 17 times in 48 chances when named as an underdog of at least +107 or worse on the moneyline.
  • Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Red Sox have a 48.3% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Boston and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 64 of their 140 opportunities.
  • The Red Sox have posted a record of 72-68-0 against the spread this season.

Orioles Leaders & Batting Stats

  • The Orioles best power option comes in the form of Anthony Santander and his 27-dinger 79-RBI season, both team highs.
  • Santander’s home runs put him 17th in the majors, and he is 22nd in RBI.
  • Cedric Mullins’ .265 batting average leads his team.
  • Mullins ranks 103rd in homers in baseball, and 85th in RBI.
  • Mullins carries a two-game streak with at least one hit into this matchup. In his last five games he is batting .350 with a home run and four RBI.
  • Ryan Mountcastle is hitting .247 with 26 doubles, 21 home runs and 33 walks.
  • Austin Hays is batting .245 with 30 doubles, a triple, 15 home runs and 27 walks.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Anthony Santander 131 .254 .332 .462 27 79 125
Cedric Mullins 135 .265 .326 .409 14 55 140
Ryan Mountcastle 124 .247 .294 .432 21 78 119
Austin Hays 124 .245 .300 .411 15 54 114
Adley Rutschman 91 .252 .359 .443 10 32 80

Red Sox Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Rafael Devers leads the Red Sox in home runs (26) and runs batted in (78).
  • Among all batters in the majors, Devers is 23rd in home runs and 26th in RBI.
  • Xander Bogaerts has a club-high .318 batting average.
  • Bogaerts is 114th among all hitters in the majors in home runs, and 52nd in RBI.
  • Alex Verdugo has 35 doubles, a triple, nine home runs and 36 walks while hitting .287.
  • Tommy Pham has 19 doubles, a triple, 16 home runs and 51 walks while hitting .247.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Rafael Devers 121 .290 .350 .533 26 78 140
Xander Bogaerts 132 .318 .386 .473 13 65 157
Alex Verdugo 133 .287 .334 .410 9 64 149
Tommy Pham 125 .247 .322 .391 16 56 119
J.D. Martínez 119 .275 .346 .430 11 52 127

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