Posted on January 21, 2019, by Travis Pulver
If Tom Brady wasn’t busy celebrating the Patriots overtime win over the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Sunday night his head might have exploded. Had he not been busy enjoying the thrills of victory he might have found something out that would have upset him quite a bit.
He would have found out that his Patriots had been named underdogs in Super Bowl LIII. Yes, somehow the Rams opened as one-point favorites. But the line didn’t stay that way for long.
However, there was enough early action on the Patriots that the line quickly moved and made the Patriots 1.5 to two-point favorites (depending on the book). As of January 21, Betway.com had the Patriots as two-point favorites.
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Following the Rams win over the Saints, some oddsmakers were projecting the Rams to be three-point favorites over the Patriots should they beat the Chiefs. But that was before potential bettors got to see a vintage performance by Brady.
Certainly, after watching him lead the Patriots down the field on the opening drive of overtime, the opening line (Patriots +1) was destined to change.
Should the over/under remain around 57-58 points it will be one of the highest ones ever placed on a Super Bowl. The Falcons/Patriots matchup in Super Bowl LI had a 57-point over/under as did the Saints-Colts game in Super Bowl XLIV.
Brady made it well-known during the week prior to the AFC Championship that he did not like that the Patriots were underdogs heading into that game. Julian Edelman challenged people to bet against the Patriots.
The last time the Patriots were not favored to win with Brady at quarterback was back during the 2014 season.
As for the Super Bowl, the Patriots have been favored in six of the previous eight. They started out as 2.5-point underdogs against the Seattle Seahawks for Super Bowl XLIX, but the line moved to pick’em. The only one where they were outright underdogs was the first one back in 2002, Super Bowl XXXVI.
The Rams were 14-point favorites, the third largest spread in Super Bowl history. But the Patriots won by three, 20-17, making them the only other team to win outright that was a 14-point underdog (or more) other than the Jets in Super Bowl III.
Historically speaking, the Patriots have been a good bet to win the Super Bowl straight up taking five of eight. However, against the spread they haven’t been as fortunate covering the spread in just three of eight games.
When it comes to the over/under, they are split; four times the final score covered the over and four times it was under. But the last three appearances have seen the over covered.
Of course, with two weeks to go before the big game, there is plenty of time for the line to move again. But with two impressive playoff wins fresh in the minds of bettors, it would be shocking to see the Patriots become underdogs.
But that doesn’t mean they will win , of course…