Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/17/2022

The Philadelphia Phillies (48-43) hope to complete a three-game sweep of the Miami Marlins (43-47) when the teams meet at 1:40 PM ET Sunday. The Phillies are -152 favorites to keep the Marlins out of the win column in the series. Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola and Miami’s Trevor Rogers have been named the starters for this contest.

Phillies vs. Marlins Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Phillies vs. Marlins

We have the Marlins on the moneyline at +129 on the moneyline as our best bet in this contest after analyzing all of the key stats and trends for this matchup. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 7 runs.

Our computer pick: Miami Marlins (+129) and Over (7)

Phillies vs. Marlins Game Info

• Philadelphia Phillies probable starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
• Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers
• Game Day: Sunday, July 17, 2022
• Game Time: 1:40 PM ET
• Location: Miami, Florida
• Stadium: loanDepot park

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Pitching Matchup

Phillies Starter Aaron Nola

• Nola gets the start for the Phillies, his 19th of the season. He is 5-7 with a 3.35 ERA and 127 strikeouts through 118 1/3 innings pitched.
• In his most recent time out on Monday, the right-hander threw 7 2/3 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals, allowing five earned runs while surrendering seven hits.
• In 18 games this season, the 29-year-old has an ERA of 3.35, with 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .216 against him.
• Nola is trying to pick up his 11th quality start of the year.
• Nola will look to continue a 17-game streak of going five or more innings (he’s averaging 6.2 frames per appearance).
• He will face a Marlins squad that is hitting .237 as a unit (21st in MLB). It is also slugging a collective .380 (21st in MLB) with 90 total home runs (18th in MLB).
• Head-to-head against the Marlins this season, Nola has thrown seven innings, giving up two earned runs on six hits while striking out six.
• This season, the 29-year-old ranks 31st in ERA (3.35), sixth in WHIP (.921), and 12th in K/9 (9.7) among pitchers who qualify.

Marlins Starter Trevor Rogers

• The Marlins will send Rogers (4-8) to the mound for his 18th start this season.
• The left-hander’s last start was on Monday, when he tossed 5 1/3 innings while giving up two earned runs on six hits in a matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
• The 24-year-old has an ERA of 5.42 and 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings with an opponent batting average of .273 in 17 games this season.
• In 17 starts this season, he’s earned a quality start in one of them.
• Rogers has started 17 games this season, and he’s lasted five or more innings 10 times. He averages 4.2 innings per appearance.
• The Phillies have scored 427 runs this season, which ranks seventh in MLB. They are batting .246 for the campaign with 119 home runs, fifth in the league.
• The Phillies have gone 9-for-23 with three doubles, a home run and 11 RBI in 5 1/3 innings this season against the left-hander.

Phillies Betting Picks & Insights

• The Phillies have entered the game as favorites 55 times this season and won 31, or 56.4%, of those games.
• Philadelphia has a record of 15-6 in games where oddsmakers favor them by at least -152 on the moneyline.
• The Phillies have a 60.3% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• So far this season, Philadelphia and its opponents have hit the over in 47 of their 91 games with a total.
• The Phillies are 49-42-0 against the spread in their 91 chances this season.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

• The Marlins have been chosen as underdogs in 49 games this year and have walked away with the win 18 times (36.7%) in those games.
• Miami has a win-loss record of 5-14 when favored by +129 or worse by oddsmakers this year.
• The Marlins have an implied victory probability of 43.7% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
• Contests with Miami have gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 43 of 90 chances this season.
• In 90 games with a line this season, the Marlins have a mark of 43-47-0 against the spread.

Phillies Leaders & Batting Stats

• Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies in home runs (29) and runs batted in (58).
• Including all MLB hitters, Schwarber is 143rd in batting average, 92nd in on-base percentage, and 18th in slugging.
• Rhys Hoskins is batting .246 with 17 doubles, two triples, 19 home runs and 45 walks.
• Hoskins is 17th in homers and 60th in RBI among all batters in baseball.
• J.T. Realmuto has 13 doubles, two triples, eight home runs and 24 walks while hitting .251.
• Realmuto is on a three-game hitting streak entering this contest. During his last five outings he is hitting .389 with two doubles, a home run, a walk and three RBI.
• Nicholas Castellanos has 20 doubles, eight home runs and 22 walks while batting .251.
• Castellanos is riding a six-game hitting streak into this one. In his last 10 outings he is batting .256 with two doubles, a walk and two RBI.

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

• Garrett Cooper leads the team in batting average with a high-water mark of .287.
• Cooper’s home run total places him 149th in the big leagues, and he ranks 76th in RBI.
• Jesus Aguilar is batting .249 with 14 doubles, 11 home runs and 20 walks.
• Among all MLB hitters, Aguilar is 71st in home runs and 95th in RBI.
• Miguel Rojas is batting .235 with 11 doubles, a triple, six home runs and 16 walks.
• Jorge Soler is batting .212 with 13 doubles, 13 home runs and 31 walks.