Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 9/11/2022

by | Sep 11, 2022

The Washington Nationals (49-91 look to avoid the sweep when they visit the Philadelphia Phillies (77-62) in the final game of a three-game set. Oddsmakers have listed the Phillies as -315 favorites, while the Nationals are +255 underdogs to pick up a win. Aaron Nola will get the ball for Philadelphia while Washington counter with Anibal Sanchez.

Phillies vs. Nationals Spread and Betting Line

Phillies vs Nationals Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Phillies -315 +255 8 -113 -107 -1.5 -143 +120

Computer Predictions for Phillies vs. Nationals

We have the Nationals on the moneyline at +255 on the moneyline as our best bet in this game after taking a look at all of the key stats and trends for this matchup. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 8 runs.

Our computer pick: Washington Nationals (+255) and Over (8)

Phillies vs. Nationals Game Info

  • Philadelphia Phillies probable starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
  • Washington Nationals probable starting pitcher: Aníbal Sánchez
  • Game Day: Sunday, September 11, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:05 PM ET
  • Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
  • Stadium: Citizens Bank Park

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Pitching Matchup

Nola Sánchez
27 GS 10
9-11 W-L 2-5
3.35 ERA 4.56
177.1 IP 51.1
24 BB 23
200 SO 35

Phillies Starter Aaron Nola

  • Nola (9-11) is trying for his 10th victory when he takes the mound for the Phillies in his 28th start of the season. He’s put together a 3.35 ERA in 177 1/3 innings pitched, with 200 strikeouts.
  • His last time out was on Tuesday against the Miami Marlins, when the righty tossed 6 2/3 innings, surrendering one earned run while allowing four hits.
  • The 29-year-old has an ERA of 3.35, with 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings, in 27 games this season. Opponents have a .223 batting average against him.
  • Nola has 16 quality starts under his belt this year.
  • Nola is looking to secure his 26th start of five or more innings this year in this matchup.
  • He will face a Nationals offense that ranks 25th in the league with 540 runs while batting .252 as a squad. It has a collective .382 slugging percentage (23rd in MLB action) and has hit a total of 119 home runs (26th in MLB).
  • Nola has pitched 21 2/3 innings, giving up four earned runs on 16 hits while striking out 16 against the Nationals this season.
  • Among qualifying pitchers in MLB play this season, the 29-year-old ranks 28th in ERA (3.35), fifth in WHIP (.970), and ninth in K/9 (10.2).

Nationals Starter Aníbal Sánchez

  • Sanchez (2-5) will take to the mound for the Nationals and make his 11th start of the season.
  • The right-hander’s last appearance was on Monday, when he threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the St. Louis Cardinals while allowing two hits.
  • The 38-year-old has pitched to a 4.56 ERA this season with 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 4.0 walks per nine across 10 games.
  • He has one quality starts in 10 chances this season.
  • Sánchez has two starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • The Phillies have scored 654 runs this season, which ranks sixth in MLB. They are batting .254 for the campaign with 176 home runs, sixth in the league.

Phillies Betting Picks & Insights

  • This season, the Phillies have been favored 92 times and won 55, or 59.8%, of those games.
  • Philadelphia has played as a favorite of -315 or more twice this season and won both games.
  • The Phillies have a 75.9% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • Games involving Philadelphia have gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 71 of 139 chances this season.
  • The Phillies have an ATS record of 71-68-0 in 139 games with a spread this season.

Nationals Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Nationals have been victorious in 41, or 33.9%, of the 121 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
  • This year, Washington has won six of seven games when listed as at least +255 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Nationals have a 28.2% chance of walking away with the win.
  • Washington and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 68 of their 140 opportunities.
  • The Nationals have posted a record of 63-77-0 against the spread this season.

Phillies Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Rhys Hoskins is hitting .250 with 27 doubles, two triples, 27 home runs and 65 walks.
  • Of all hitters in MLB, Hoskins ranks 17th in home runs and 46th in RBI.
  • Kyle Schwarber has shown off his power as he leads his team with 37 home runs and 79 runs batted in.
  • Schwarber is second in homers and 22nd in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
  • Schwarber heads into this game looking for his third game in a row with a hit. During his last five outings he is batting .211 with a double, a home run, two walks and an RBI.
  • J.T. Realmuto is batting .271 with 23 doubles, five triples, 16 home runs and 38 walks.
  • Alec Bohm’s .292 batting average is a team-high mark.
  • Bohm is riding a three-game hitting streak into this one. In his last five games he is hitting .368 with two doubles, a triple and three RBI.
Rhys Hoskins 137 .250 .338 .467 27 67 129
Kyle Schwarber 133 .214 .311 .485 37 79 107
J.T. Realmuto 118 .271 .342 .461 16 73 115
Alec Bohm 129 .292 .324 .408 10 64 145
Bryce Harper 77 .309 .385 .566 16 54 89

Nationals Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Cesar Hernandez has 27 doubles, four triples, a home run and 42 walks while hitting .250.
  • Hernandez is 394th in homers and 225th in RBI among all hitters in the big leagues.
  • Lane Thomas has a club-leading .253 batting average.
  • Thomas is 89th among all hitters in MLB in home runs, and 123rd in RBI.
  • Nelson Cruz has sent home a team-best 64 runs batted in.
  • Luke Voit paces the Nationals with 19 long balls.
César Hernández 133 .250 .314 .324 1 32 129
Lane Thomas 125 .253 .308 .422 15 49 106
Nelson Cruz 122 .238 .317 .342 10 64 105
Luke Voit 113 .229 .321 .413 19 60 95
Luis Garcia 73 .290 .302 .427 6 34 83

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