Red Sox vs. Guardians Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/25/2022

by | Jul 24, 2022

The Cleveland Guardians (48-46) are -106 underdogs for their meeting with the Boston Red Sox (48-48) on Monday at 7:10 PM ET. Jose Ramirez has 99 hits on the season and will hope to hit his milestone 100th once the game begins at Fenway Park. Boston’s Nick Pivetta gets the start, and he’ll go against Cleveland’s Zach Plesac.

Red Sox vs. Guardians Spread and Betting Line

Red Sox vs Guardians Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Red Sox -112 -106 9.5 -102 -119 -1.5 +119 -108

Computer Predictions for Red Sox vs. Guardians

Our best bet is the Guardians on the moneyline at -106 after analyzing all of the key stats and trends for this matchup. Our computer projects the total score will under the total of 9.5 runs.

Our computer pick: Cleveland Guardians (-106) and Under (9.5)

Red Sox vs. Guardians Game Info

  • Boston Red Sox probable starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta
  • Cleveland Guardians probable starting pitcher: Zach Plesac
  • Game Day: Monday, July 25, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:10 PM ET
  • Location: Boston, Massachusetts
  • Stadium: Fenway Park

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Pitching Matchup

Pivetta Plesac
19 GS 17
8-7 W-L 2-7
4.50 ERA 3.93
108.0 IP 94.0
39 BB 23
104 SO 68

Red Sox Starter Nick Pivetta

  • Pivetta (8-7) takes the mound for the Red Sox in his 20th start of the season. He has a 4.50 ERA in 108 innings pitched, with 104 strikeouts.
  • The righty last pitched on Saturday, July 16 against the New York Yankees, when he threw 4 1/3 innings, allowing seven earned runs while giving up seven hits.
  • The 29-year-old has put up a 4.50 ERA and 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings in 19 games this season, while giving up a batting average of .238 to opposing hitters.
  • Pivetta is looking to pick up his 11th quality start of the year in this game.
  • Pivetta has put together 13 starts this year in which he pitched five or more innings.
  • He will face a Guardians offense that ranks ninth in MLB with 805 total hits (on a .252 batting average). The team also slugs a collective .388 (16th in MLB) with 74 total home runs (28th in MLB).
  • Pivetta has a 2.57 ERA and a 1.286 WHIP against the Guardians this season in seven innings pitched, allowing a .310 batting average over one appearance.
  • Among qualifying pitchers in MLB play this season, the 29-year-old ranks 55th in ERA (4.50), 46th in WHIP (1.259), and 26th in K/9 (8.7).

Guardians Starter Zach Plesac

  • Plesac (2-7) will take to the mound for the Guardians and make his 18th start of the season.
  • The right-hander’s last start was on Friday, July 15, when he tossed 3 2/3 innings while giving up two earned runs on six hits in a matchup with the Detroit Tigers.
  • The 27-year-old has pitched in 17 games this season with an ERA of 3.93 and 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings, with an opponent batting average of .255.
  • In 17 starts this season, he’s earned a quality start in nine of them.
  • In 17 starts this season, Plesac has lasted five or more innings 14 times, with an average of 5.2 innings per appearance.
  • The Red Sox have scored 440 runs this season, which ranks ninth in MLB. They are batting .256 for the campaign with 97 home runs, 16th in the league.
  • The 27-year-old’s 3.93 ERA ranks 45th, 1.255 WHIP ranks 44th, and 6.5 K/9 ranks 55th among qualified pitchers in the majors this season.

Red Sox Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Red Sox have entered the game as favorites 50 times this season and won 30, or 60%, of those games.
  • Boston has a record of 29-20, a 59.2% win rate, when favored by -112 or more by oddsmakers this season.
  • The sportsbooks’ moneyline implies a 52.8% chance of a victory for the Red Sox.
  • Boston and its opponents have hit the over in 43 of their 96 games with a total this season.
  • The Red Sox are 50-46-0 against the spread in their 96 chances this season.

Guardians Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Guardians have come away with 23 wins in the 54 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • This season, Cleveland has come away with a win 22 times in 52 chances when named as an underdog of at least -106 or worse on the moneyline.
  • Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Guardians have a 51.5% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Cleveland and their opponents have gone over in 47 of their 102 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • In 102 games with a line this season, the Guardians have a mark of 54-48-0 against the spread.

Red Sox Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Xander Bogaerts is hitting .313 with 24 doubles, seven home runs and 36 walks.
  • Among all MLB batters, Bogaerts is seventh in batting average, 12th in on-base percentage, and 56th in slugging.
  • Bogaerts carries a two-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last five games he is batting .200 with an RBI.
  • Alex Verdugo is hitting .265 with 19 doubles, six home runs and 22 walks.
  • Verdugo ranks 184th in homers in the majors, and 41st in RBI.
  • Verdugo has two games in a row with at least one hit. In his last five games he is batting .278 with an RBI.
  • J.D. Martinez has 30 doubles, nine home runs and 31 walks while batting .302.
  • Christian Vazquez is hitting .277 with 18 doubles, eight home runs and 16 walks.
Xander Bogaerts 92 .313 .386 .445 7 38 106
Alex Verdugo 89 .265 .307 .372 6 49 92
J.D. Martínez 81 .302 .368 .481 9 38 96
Christian Vázquez 77 .277 .322 .434 8 38 74
Jackie Bradley Jr. 85 .209 .258 .315 3 28 53

Guardians Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Ramirez paces the Guardians in home runs (19) and runs batted in (78).
  • Among all hitters in MLB, Ramirez’s home run total is 20th and his RBI tally is second.
  • Amed Rosario is hitting .297 with 18 doubles, six triples, four home runs and 19 walks.
  • Rosario ranks 250th in homers and 146th in RBI among all major league hitters this season.
  • Steven Kwan is hitting .292 with 14 doubles, three triples, two home runs and 33 walks.
  • Josh Naylor has 14 doubles, 13 home runs and 18 walks while hitting .282.
José Ramírez 90 .289 .365 .573 19 78 99
Amed Rosario 88 .297 .334 .415 4 33 106
Steven Kwan 82 .292 .369 .380 2 27 86
Josh Naylor 66 .282 .332 .504 13 51 67
Andrés Giménez 83 .304 .360 .493 11 46 82

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