Red Sox vs. Rays Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/11/2022

by | Jul 11, 2022

The Tampa Bay Rays (45-40) hope to avoid their fourth straight defeat when they host the Boston Red Sox (47-39) Monday at 7:10 PM ET. The Red Sox are listed as -119 favorites, while the Rays are +100 underdogs as they try to snap their losing skid. Brayan Bello will get the ball for Boston while Tampa Bay counter with Matt Wisler.

Red Sox vs. Rays Spread and Betting Line

Red Sox vs Rays Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Red Sox -119 +100 7.5 -113 -107 -1.5 +143 -173

Computer Predictions for Red Sox vs. Rays

After digging through all of the key stats and trends for this matchup, our best bet is the Rays on the moneyline at +100. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 7.5 runs.

Our computer pick: Tampa Bay Rays (+100) and Over (7.5)

Red Sox vs. Rays Game Info

  • Boston Red Sox probable starting pitcher: Brayan Bello
  • Tampa Bay Rays probable starting pitcher: Matt Wisler
  • Game Day: Monday, July 11, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:10 PM ET
  • Location: St. Petersburg, Florida
  • Stadium: Tropicana Field

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Pitching Matchup

Bello Wisler
1 GS 4
0-1 W-L 2-3
9.00 ERA 2.58
4.0 IP 38.1
3 BB 14
2 SO 31

Red Sox Starter Brayan Bello

  • The Red Sox will look to Bello (0-1) in his second start this season.
  • His last time out came on Wednesday against the Tampa Bay Rays, when the righty threw 4 2/3 innings, surrendering four earned runs while allowing six hits.
  • In one appearances this season, he has a 9.00 ERA and 4.5 strikeouts per nine innings, while opponents are hitting .333 against him.
  • He will face off against a Rays squad that is hitting .237 as a unit (21st in MLB). It is also slugging a collective .379 (22nd in MLB) with 80 total home runs (21st in MLB).
  • Bello has a 9 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP against the Rays this season in four innings pitched, allowing a .333 batting average over one appearance.

Rays Starter Matt Wisler

  • The Rays will hand the ball to Wisler (2-3) for his fifth start of the season.
  • The right-hander last pitched out of the bullpen on Saturday, when he threw 1 1/3 scoreless innings without allowing a hit to the Cincinnati Reds.
  • The 29-year-old has pitched in 35 games this season with an ERA of 2.58, a 2.214 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.096.
  • The Red Sox are batting .261 this season, first in MLB. They have a team slugging percentage of .416 (eighth in the league) with 85 home runs.
  • The right-hander has allowed the Red Sox to go 2-for-7 with a triple and an RBI in two innings this season.

Red Sox Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Red Sox have been favorites in 49 games this season and won 30 (61.2%) of those contests.
  • Boston is 25-18 this season when entering a game favored by -119 or more on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Red Sox, based on the moneyline, is 54.3%.
  • Games involving Boston have gone over the total set by bookmakers in 36 of 86 chances this season.
  • The Red Sox are 48-38-0 against the spread this season.

Rays Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Rays have won in 12, or 42.9%, of the 28 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
  • This season, Tampa Bay has come away with a win nine times in 23 chances when named as an underdog of at least +100 or longer on the moneyline.
  • Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Rays have a 50% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Tampa Bay’s games have gone over the total in 40 of their 85 opportunities.
  • The Rays have an against the spread record of 38-47-0 in 85 games with a line this season.

Red Sox Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Rafael Devers has racked up a team-best batting average of .327, and paces the Red Sox in home runs (19).
  • Devers’ home runs put him 13th in the majors, and he ranks 20th in RBI.
  • Xander Bogaerts is batting .311 with 21 doubles, seven home runs and 35 walks.
  • Bogaerts ranks 140th in homers in the majors, and 93rd in RBI.
  • Bogaerts carries a two-game streak with at least one hit into this matchup. During his last five outings he is batting .211 with three walks and an RBI.
  • Alex Verdugo is batting .262 with 17 doubles, six home runs and 22 walks.
  • Verdugo will look to build on his two-game hitting in this matchup. In his last five games he is hitting .238 with two walks and three RBI.
  • J.D. Martinez is batting .311 with 27 doubles, nine home runs and 30 walks.
  • Martinez is riding a three-game hitting streak into this one. During his last five outings he is hitting .300 with a double, a home run, two walks and three RBI.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Rafael Devers 80 .327 .384 .593 19 51 106
Xander Bogaerts 82 .311 .389 .449 7 35 95
Alex Verdugo 79 .262 .310 .375 6 46 81
J.D. Martínez 75 .311 .378 .493 9 36 92
Trevor Story 79 .225 .294 .430 15 58 68

Rays Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Yandy Diaz leads the team in batting average with a high-water mark of .299.
  • Among all hitters in MLB, Diaz is 264th in home runs and 226th in RBI.
  • Randy Arozarena has driven in the most runs for the Rays with 40 runs batted in.
  • Arozarena ranks 83rd overall in home runs and 61st in RBI this year.
  • Harold Ramirez is batting .324 with 15 doubles, four home runs and 16 walks.
  • Ji-Man Choi is hitting .281 with 14 doubles, seven home runs and 37 walks.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Yandy Díaz 77 .299 .412 .395 3 20 78
Randy Arozarena 82 .252 .305 .421 10 40 80
Harold Ramirez 71 .324 .373 .447 4 33 71
Ji-Man Choi 60 .281 .391 .459 7 38 55
Isaac Paredes 46 .240 .304 .548 13 28 35

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