Red Sox vs. Royals Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 9/16/2022

by | Sep 16, 2022

A losing streak will come to an end Friday when the Boston Red Sox (69-74), losers of two straight, take on the Kansas City Royals (57-86). The Royals are hoping to avoid their third loss in a row. The Red Sox are -206 favorites to snap out of their slide when the teams hit the field at Fenway Park, with first pitch at 7:10 PM ET. Boston’s Michael Wacha and Kansas City’s Jonathan Heasley have been named the starters for this contest.

Red Sox vs. Royals Spread and Betting Line

Red Sox vs Royals Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Red Sox -206 +171 9.5 -101 -119 -1.5 -101 -120

Computer Predictions for Red Sox vs. Royals

Our best bet is the Royals on the moneyline at +171 after taking a look at all of the key trends and statistics for this matchup. Our computer predicts the total score will over the total of 9.5 runs.

Our computer pick: Kansas City Royals (+171) and Over (9.5)

Red Sox vs. Royals Game Info

  • Boston Red Sox probable starting pitcher: Michael Wacha
  • Kansas City Royals probable starting pitcher: Jonathan Heasley
  • Game Day: Friday, September 16, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:10 PM ET
  • Location: Boston, Massachusetts
  • Stadium: Fenway Park

Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Pitching Matchup

Wacha Heasley
19 GS 17
11-1 W-L 3-8
2.69 ERA 5.51
107.0 IP 81.2
26 BB 39
88 SO 57

Red Sox Starter Michael Wacha

  • Wacha gets the start for the Red Sox, his 20th of the season. He is 11-1 with a 2.69 ERA and 88 strikeouts in 107 innings pitched.
  • His most recent time out came on Saturday against the Baltimore Orioles, when the righty tossed 6 2/3 innings, surrendering three earned runs while allowing six hits.
  • In 19 games this season, the 31-year-old has a 2.69 ERA and 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings, while allowing a batting average of .213 to opposing hitters.
  • Wacha is looking for his fourth quality start in a row.
  • Wacha is looking for his 10th straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.2 frames per appearance on the mound.
  • He will take the mound against a Royals offense that ranks 18th in MLB with 1160 total hits (on a .241 batting average). The squad also slugs a collective .375 (26th in MLB) with 121 total home runs (27th in MLB).

Royals Starter Jonathan Heasley

  • Jon Heasley (3-8) will take the mound for the Royals, his 18th start of the season.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Saturday, when he gave up seven earned runs and allowed seven hits in 4 2/3 innings against the Detroit Tigers.
  • The 25-year-old has pitched to a 5.51 ERA this season with 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 4.3 walks per nine across 17 games.
  • In 17 starts this season, he’s earned a quality start in five of them.
  • In 17 starts this season, Heasley has lasted five or more innings 10 times, with an average of 4.2 innings per appearance.
  • The Red Sox have scored 653 runs this season, which ranks eighth in MLB. They are batting .259 for the campaign with 136 home runs, 20th in the league.

Red Sox Betting Picks & Insights

  • This season, the Red Sox have been favored 70 times and won 41, or 58.6%, of those games.
  • Boston has entered three games this season favored by -206 or more, and won each of those games.
  • The Red Sox have a 67.3% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • Boston and its opponents have hit the over in 65 of their 143 games with a total this season.
  • The Red Sox are 74-69-0 against the spread in their 143 chances this season.

Royals Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Royals have been chosen as underdogs in 121 games this year and have walked away with the win 47 times (38.8%) in those games.
  • Kansas City has a win-loss record of 5-23 when favored by +171 or worse by bookmakers this year.
  • The Royals have an implied victory probability of 36.9% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
  • Contests with Kansas City have gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 70 of 147 chances this season.
  • The Royals have posted a record of 71-76-0 against the spread this season.

Red Sox Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Rafael Devers has gone yard 26 times in the 2022 campaign while driving in 79 runs, both totals that lead the Red Sox.
  • Among all hitters in baseball, Devers ranks 26th in home runs and 27th in RBI.
  • Xander Bogaerts is batting .317 to lead his team.
  • Including all MLB hitters, Bogaerts ranks 108th in homers and 53rd in RBI.
  • Bogaerts has five straight games with at least one hit. During his last five outings he is batting .368 with two home runs, two walks and four RBI.
  • Alex Verdugo has 35 doubles, a triple, nine home runs and 37 walks while hitting .284.
  • Tommy Pham is hitting .245 with 19 doubles, a triple, 16 home runs and 51 walks.
Rafael Devers 124 .287 .347 .526 26 79 142
Xander Bogaerts 135 .317 .384 .474 14 67 160
Alex Verdugo 136 .284 .332 .404 9 65 151
Tommy Pham 128 .245 .320 .385 16 56 121
J.D. Martínez 122 .272 .342 .423 11 52 128

Royals Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Bobby Witt Jr. paces the Royals with 72 runs batted in while accumulating a team-best batting average of .247.
  • Among all hitters in the majors, Witt Jr.’s home run total is 53rd and his RBI tally is 39th.
  • Salvador Perez has a team-high 21 home runs.
  • Perez ranks 47th among all hitters in the big leagues in homers, and 49th in RBI.
  • MJ Melendez is batting .216 with 16 doubles, two triples, 15 home runs and 58 walks.
  • Michael A. Taylor has nine doubles, three triples, nine home runs and 34 walks while hitting .267.
Bobby Witt Jr. 133 .247 .290 .438 20 72 128
Salvador Pérez 100 .245 .282 .459 21 68 95
MJ Melendez 111 .216 .315 .384 15 52 84
Michael A. Taylor 112 .267 .329 .380 9 43 99
Nicky Lopez 132 .237 .291 .286 0 19 98

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