Reds vs. Marlins Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/27/2022

Seeking their 38th win of the year, the Cincinnati Reds (37-59) are favorites (-159) on the moneyline when they take on the Miami Marlins (46-51) Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET. Luis Castillo takes the mound for Cincinnati while Braxton Garrett is Miami’s starter for the contest.

Reds vs. Marlins Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Reds vs. Marlins

We have the Marlins on the moneyline at +136 on the moneyline as our best bet in this contest after taking a look at all of the key trends and statistics for this matchup. Our computer picks see the scoring going over the total of 8 runs.

Our computer pick: Miami Marlins (+136) and Over (8)

Reds vs. Marlins Game Info

• Cincinnati Reds probable starting pitcher: Luis Castillo
• Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
• Game Day: Wednesday, July 27, 2022
• Game Time: 6:40 PM ET
• Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
• Stadium: Great American Ball Park

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Pitching Matchup

Reds Starter Luis Castillo

• Castillo (3-4 with a 2.77 ERA and 82 strikeouts in 78 innings pitched) makes the start for the Reds, his 14th of the season.
• His most recent time out was on Thursday, July 14 against the New York Yankees, when the right-hander went 7 2/3 innings, surrendering one earned run while giving up two hits.
• The 29-year-old has put together a 2.77 ERA and 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings across 13 games this season, while allowing a batting average of .199 to his opponents.
• Castillo is trying to record his fifth straight quality start in this game.
• Castillo is looking for his 13th straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 6.0 innings per appearance on the hill.
• The opposing Marlins offense has a collective .237 batting average, and is 19th in the league with 773 total hits and 24th in MLB play with 389 runs scored. It has the 26th-ranked slugging percentage (.374) and ranks 20th in home runs (92) in all of MLB.

Marlins Starter Braxton Garrett

• The Marlins will hand the ball to Garrett (2-3) for his 10th start of the season.
• The left-hander last pitched on Friday, when he gave up one earned run and allowed two hits in 6 2/3 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
• The 24-year-old has an ERA of 3.42 and 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings with an opponent batting average of .238 in nine games this season.
• He’s looking to extend his two-game quality start streak.
• Garrett has pitched five or more innings in four straight games and will look to extend that streak.
• The Reds rank 17th in MLB with a .240 batting average this season. They have a team slugging percentage that ranks 23rd in the league (.380) and 92 home runs.

Reds Betting Picks & Insights

• This season, the Reds have been favored 19 times and won seven, or 36.8%, of those games.
• Cincinnati has played as a favorite of -159 or more once this season and lost that game.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Reds have a 61.4% chance to win.
• So far this season, Cincinnati and its opponents have hit the over in 52 of their 98 games with a total.
• The Reds have an ATS record of 47-51-0 in 98 games with a spread this season.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

• The Marlins have been underdogs in 51 games this season and have come away with the win 18 times (35.3%) in those contests.
• This season, Miami has been victorious two times in 13 chances when named as an underdog of at least +136 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 42.4% chance of walking away with the win.
• Miami and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 47 of their 97 opportunities.
• The Marlins have posted a record of 44-53-0 against the spread this season.

Reds Leaders & Batting Stats

• Brandon Drury’s 19 home runs and 57 RBI both lead the Reds, on top of his team-high .267 average.
• In all of Major League Baseball, Drury ranks 19th in home runs and 20th in RBI.
• Kyle Farmer has 19 doubles, six home runs and 23 walks while hitting .259.
• Farmer ranks 183rd in homers and 51st in RBI in the major leagues.
• Tommy Pham is hitting .237 with 10 doubles, a triple, 11 home runs and 40 walks.
• Joey Votto is batting .213 with 17 doubles, a triple, eight home runs and 35 walks.

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

• Miguel Rojas is batting .238 with 13 doubles, a triple, six home runs and 17 walks.
• Among all hitters in the majors, Rojas is 183rd in home runs and 222nd in RBI.
• Rojas brings a hitting streak of four games into this game. In his last five games he is batting .263 with two doubles, a walk and two RBI.
• Jesus Aguilar’s .245 batting average paces his team.
• Aguilar ranks 83rd in home runs and 101st in RBI among all major league hitters this season.
• Jesus Sanchez has 11 doubles, three triples, 11 home runs and 24 walks while batting .204.
• Joey Wendle has 11 doubles, two home runs and 10 walks while hitting .300.