Reds vs. Marlins Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/28/2022

Seeking their 39th win of the year, the Cincinnati Reds (38-59) are favorites (-135) on the moneyline when they take on the Miami Marlins (46-52) Thursday at 12:35 PM ET. Graham Ashcraft starts for Cincinnati while Daniel Castano is Miami’s starter for the contest.

Reds vs. Marlins Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Reds vs. Marlins

We have the Marlins on the moneyline at +116 on the moneyline as our best bet in this contest after taking a look at all of the key stats and trends for this matchup. Our computer picks see the scoring going over the total of 9 runs.

Our computer pick: Miami Marlins (+116) and Over (9)

Reds vs. Marlins Game Info

• Cincinnati Reds probable starting pitcher: Graham Ashcraft
• Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Daniel Castano
• Game Day: Thursday, July 28, 2022
• Game Time: 12:35 PM ET
• Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
• Stadium: Great American Ball Park

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Pitching Matchup

Reds Starter Graham Ashcraft

• Ashcraft (4-2 with a 4.70 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 59 1/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Reds, his 12th of the season.
• The righty’s last time out came on Friday against the St. Louis Cardinals, when he threw 4 2/3 innings, surrendering four earned runs while allowing seven hits.
• The 24-year-old has put up an ERA of 4.70, with 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings, in 11 games this season. Opponents have a .282 batting average against him.
• Ashcraft is trying to record his sixth quality start of the season in this game.
• Ashcraft has seven starts this year in which he pitched five or more innings.
• The opposing Marlins offense has a collective .237 batting average, and is 21st in the league with 780 total hits and 24th in MLB play with 392 runs scored. It has the 25th-ranked slugging percentage (.375) and ranks 20th in home runs (94) in all of MLB.

Marlins Starter Daniel Castano

• Castano (1-3) will take to the mound for the Marlins and make his seventh start of the season.
• The left-hander’s last appearance was on Tuesday, July 12, when he threw 5 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs while allowing five hits against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
• The 27-year-old has pitched in nine games this season with an ERA of 3.86 and 5.1 strikeouts per nine innings, with an opponent batting average of .286.
• He has two quality starts in six chances this season.
• Castano has four starts of five or more innings this season in six chances. He averages 3.3 innings per outing.
• The Reds rank 18th in MLB with 425 runs scored this season. They have a .240 batting average this campaign with 92 home runs (21st in the league).

Reds Betting Picks & Insights

• The Reds have entered the game as favorites 20 times this season and won eight, or 40%, of those games.
• Cincinnati is 4-2 this season when entering a game favored by -135 or more on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 57.4% chance of a victory for the Reds.
• Cincinnati and its opponents have hit the over in 52 of their 99 games with a total this season.
• The Reds are 48-51-0 ATS in their 99 games with a spread this season.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

• The Marlins have won in 18, or 34.6%, of the 52 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
• This year, Miami has won nine of 31 games when listed as at least +116 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 46.3% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
• Contests with Miami have gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 47 of 98 chances this season.
• The Marlins have posted a record of 44-54-0 against the spread this season.

Reds Leaders & Batting Stats

• Brandon Drury paces the Reds in home runs (19), runs batted in (57) and has accumulated a team-high batting average of .265.
• Drury ranks 21st in home runs and 21st in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Kyle Farmer is hitting .259 with 20 doubles, six home runs and 23 walks.
• Farmer ranks 185th in homers and 44th in RBI in the bigs.
• Tommy Pham has 10 doubles, a triple, 11 home runs and 40 walks while hitting .240.
• Joey Votto has 17 doubles, a triple, eight home runs and 35 walks while hitting .210.

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

• Miguel Rojas is hitting .238 with 13 doubles, a triple, six home runs and 17 walks, while getting on base at a rate of .285.
• In all of MLB, Rojas is 185th in homers and 225th in RBI.
• Rojas has collected a hit in four straight games. In his last five games he is batting .263 with two doubles, a walk and two RBI.
• Jesus Aguilar’s .242 batting average leads his team.
• Aguilar is 84th in homers and 103rd in RBI among all MLB hitters this year.
• Jesus Sanchez is batting .204 with 12 doubles, three triples, 11 home runs and 24 walks.
• Joey Wendle is batting .293 with 11 doubles, two home runs and 10 walks.