Standard Run Down plays from our friend Doug over at the Run Down. Here’s the MLB, NBA, Soccer, and NHL Parlay bets for today. If you like making money betting on parlays and sports then tune in.
New York Knicks @ Dallas Mavericks – 9:40 p.m. ET
This total seems mysteriously WAY too low. And that’s the point. 210.5 is the lowest over/under of the entire Friday NBA slate — a group of games that also includes the absurdly (ABSURDLY!) high 240 between the Pelicans and Wizards.
Trust us, we get it — you have to ignore high-profile scorers like Julius Randle and Luka Doncic, who just floated in an insane game-winner Wednesday. But there’s a twofold reason this is such a small number and will stay under.
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The Mavs play at the fifth-slowest pace in the association, while the Knicks are the slowest, and fewer possessions means fewer opportunities to score. Those scarce opportunities lead to even fewer buckets when you couple the Mavs’ league-average ball-stopping with the Knicks’ third-rated defensive efficiency.
The public is hammering the over. Be a good contrarian and go low.
Pick: Knicks-Mavericks Under 210.5 (-109)
DFS Value Play: Reggie Bullock ($4100)
Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals – 8:10 p.m. ET
Underdogs have been absolutely barking to start the MLB season, winning 49.2% of all games straight up. Sure, that’s a tick under half the outcomes — but because of the plus money, you’d be up a mountain of units if you took every single dog this season.
Let’s keep the party going by taking the AL Central-leading Royals tonight. The 2015 World Series champs have fallen on hard times in recent campaigns, but have a sneaky explosive lineup led by underrated superstar Whit Merrifield (.364 AVG, .994 OPS).
Starter Mike Minor should have no problem hanging with the Jays’ Steven Matz, who was sharp in his first two outings, but is due for regression. The Royals have won three straight and took Game 1 last night 7-5. Look for more of the same here.
Pick: Royals +100
DFS Value Play: Andrew Benintendi ($3400)
Hoffenheim @ RB Leipzig – 2:30 p.m. ET
RB Leipzig have become a powerhouse and a Champions League mainstay, appearing in three of the past four competitions and reaching last year’s semi-finals. This year is no different as they sit second in the current Bundesliga table, just five points behind Bayern Munich.
They average 1.86 goals per game and concede 0.82, have won eight of their last 10 league matches, and the only loss was a 1-0 decision to Bayern. Visitors Hoffenheim sit 12th in the table, and are only five points above the relegation play-off zone. They haven’t won a game since March 6, and they allow 1.68 goals per game, which is bad news against Leipzig.
In the last two head-to-heads (both at Hoffenheim), Leipzig didn’t concede a Hoffenheim goal. In the last meeting from Red Bull Arena, Leipzig won 3-1. Look for the hosts to score early and put this thing to bed.
Pick: RB Leipzig -1.5 (+108)
Parlay
First leg – Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ET
Alright, alright, alright. It’s MLS Opening Weekend, and We’re going to observe the occasion the best way we know how – by getting involved. No offense to Matthew McConaughey, but we’ll start with the biggest favorites on the slate, as LAFC will be Austin F.C.’s first opponent in club history. Easy money for the 2019 Supporters’ Shield winners.
For the second leg, we’ll turn to defending champs Columbus Crew, who open the 2021 campaign at home against the Philadelphia Union. It’s a tough matchup, but we’re banking on the emotion of a banner winning the day for Columbus.
Pick: LAFC and Columbus Crew Parlay +165
Prop
Calgary Flames @ Montreal Canadiens – 6:00 p.m. ET
The Flames have shown a recent spark, winning their last three contests, including Wednesday against the Habs. Johnny Gaudreau has perked up as well, notching four points in the last three games. Johnny Hockey got on the scoresheet in each of his first two games in Montreal before a goose egg on Wednesday, so expect him to bounce back here against mediocre Jake Allen.
Pick: Johnny Gaudreau 1+ Point -134
Bold Bet
New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies – 8:40 p.m. ET
The Rockies are 3-10, failed to cover the runline in all three games with the Dodgers, and tonight face Jacob deGrom. But: They also led 5-3 heading into the bottom of the seventh last night before L.A. erupted for four. So we’re saying there’s a chance. Trevor Story doesn’t have a home run through his first 13 games — bizarre given he had five at this point last season. So some how, some way, Story homers and sparks a Rockies win.
Pick: Rockies +245