Twins vs. Brewers Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/12/2022

by | Jul 11, 2022

The leaders of the AL Central and NL Central meet Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET, with the Minnesota Twins (48-40) hosting the Milwaukee Brewers (48-39). Bookmakers favor the Twins for the contest, installing them as -135 moneyline favorites. Josh Winder gets the starting nod for Minnesota while Jason Alexander is Milwaukee’s starter for the contest.

Twins vs. Brewers Spread and Betting Line

Twins vs Brewers Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Twins -135 +115 9 -110 -110 -1.5 +140 -165

Computer Predictions for Twins vs. Brewers

Our best bet is the Brewers on the moneyline at +115 after analyzing all of the key trends and stats for this matchup. Our computer projects the scoring will over the total of 9 runs.

Our computer pick: Milwaukee Brewers (+115) and Over (9)

Twins vs. Brewers Game Info

  • Minnesota Twins probable starting pitcher: Josh Winder
  • Milwaukee Brewers probable starting pitcher: Jason Alexander
  • Game Day: Tuesday, July 12, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:40 PM ET
  • Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
  • Stadium: Target Field

Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers Pitching Matchup

Winder Alexander
5 GS 6
4-2 W-L 2-1
3.12 ERA 4.75
40.1 IP 36.0
12 BB 15
27 SO 17

Twins Starter Josh Winder

  • Winder gets the start for the Twins, his sixth of the season. He is 4-2 with a 3.12 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings pitched.
  • His last appearance came on Wednesday against the Chicago White Sox, when the right-hander threw 5 2/3 innings, surrendering two earned runs while giving up seven hits.
  • In nine games this season, the 25-year-old has put up an ERA of 3.12, with 6 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are batting .250 against him.
  • Winder is looking to secure his fourth quality start of the year.
  • Winder is looking for his third straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages 4.1 frames per appearance on the hill.
  • The opposing Brewers offense has the ninth-ranked slugging percentage (.412) and ranks fourth in MLB play with 119 home runs. It has a collective .236 batting average, and is 16th in MLB with 684 total hits and ninth in MLB play scoring 396 runs.

Brewers Starter Jason Alexander

  • The Brewers’ Alexander (2-1) will make his seventh start of the season.
  • The right-hander gave up six earned runs and allowed eight hits in 5 1/3 innings pitched against the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday.
  • The 29-year-old has pitched in eight games this season with an ERA of 4.75, a 1.133 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.722.
  • He has started six games this season, earning a quality start (6 or more IP, 3 or fewer ER) in one of them.
  • In six starts, Alexander has pitched through or past the fifth inning five times. He has a season average of 4.2 frames per outing.
  • The Twins have scored 404 runs this season, which ranks seventh in MLB. They have 753 hits, fourth in baseball, with 111 home runs (seventh in the league).

Twins Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Twins have won 33, or 63.5%, of the 52 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • Minnesota has a record of 26-14, a 65% win rate, when favored by -135 or more by sportsbooks this season.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Twins, based on the moneyline, is 57.4%.
  • So far this season, Minnesota and its opponents have hit the over in 41 of their 89 games with a total.
  • The Twins are 42-47-0 ATS in their 89 games with a spread this season.

Brewers Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Brewers have come away with 10 wins in the 18 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • This year, Milwaukee has won four of seven games when listed as at least +115 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Brewers have a 46.5% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • Contests with Milwaukee have gone over the total set by bookmakers in 44 of 87 chances this season.
  • The Brewers are 38-49-0 against the spread in their 87 games that had a posted line this season.

Twins Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Luis Arraez leads the Twins with a team-high batting average of .348.
  • Among all batters in baseball, Arraez ranks 234th in homers and 148th in RBI.
  • Max Kepler is batting .244 with 12 doubles, a triple, nine home runs and 40 walks.
  • Kepler is 99th in home runs and 76th in RBI in the majors.
  • Kepler enters this matchup looking for his fourth game in a row with a hit. In his last five games he is batting .421 with a double, a home run, a walk and two RBI.
  • Byron Buxton has hit a team-best 23 home runs.
  • Buxton is on a two-game hitting streak entering this contest. In his last five games he is batting .095 with a double, a home run, three walks and two RBI.
  • Jorge Polanco has collected 44 runs batted in to pace his team.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Luis Arraez 78 .348 .420 .449 4 29 100
Max Kepler 77 .244 .350 .401 9 37 64
Byron Buxton 67 .215 .295 .550 23 42 54
Jorge Polanco 69 .239 .339 .420 12 44 61
Gio Urshela 78 .267 .313 .415 8 35 72

Brewers Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Rowdy Tellez has posted a team-leading 17 home runs and has driven in 55 runs.
  • In all of the big leagues, Tellez ranks 19th in home runs and 14th in RBI.
  • Christian Yelich has 12 doubles, three triples, eight home runs and 44 walks while hitting .250.
  • Yelich ranks 114th among all hitters in the big leagues in homers, and 135th in RBI.
  • Willy Adames leads the Brewers with 17 long balls.
  • Andrew McCutchen leads the Brewers with a team-high batting average of .253.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Rowdy Tellez 82 .230 .306 .467 17 55 66
Christian Yelich 84 .250 .345 .383 8 31 79
Willy Adames 65 .217 .289 .472 17 47 55
Andrew McCutchen 71 .253 .318 .381 8 35 71
Kolten Wong 64 .235 .324 .406 6 22 51

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