Twins vs. Guardians Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 6/28/2022

Luis Arraez, batting .345 this season, leads the Minnesota Twins (42-33) into a matchup with one of the league’s other top hitters, Andres Gimenez (.318 AVG) and the Cleveland Guardians (36-33). Arraez and the Twins are -110 favorites on the moneyline for the matchup at Progressive Field, beginning at 1:10 PM ET. Minnesota’s Devin Smeltzer gets the start, and he’ll go against Cleveland’s Zach Plesac.

Twins vs. Guardians Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Twins vs. Guardians

Our best bet is the Guardians on the moneyline at -109 after taking a look at all of the key stats and trends for this matchup. Our computer predicts the scoring will over the total of 9 runs.

Our computer pick: Cleveland Guardians (-109) and Over (9)

Twins vs. Guardians Game Info

• Minnesota Twins probable starting pitcher: Devin Smeltzer
• Cleveland Guardians probable starting pitcher: Zach Plesac
• Game Day: Tuesday, June 28, 2022
• Game Time: 1:10 PM ET
• Location: Cleveland, Ohio
• Stadium: Progressive Field

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Pitching Matchup

Twins Starter Devin Smeltzer

• Smeltzer makes the start for the Twins, his ninth of the season. He is 4-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 44 1/3 innings pitched.
• His last time out was on Thursday against the Cleveland Guardians, when the left-hander tossed six scoreless innings while giving up three hits.
• In eight games this season, the 26-year-old has amassed an ERA of 3.05, with 4.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are batting .224 against him.
• Smeltzer heads into the matchup with four quality starts under his belt this season.
• Smeltzer has pitched five or more innings in a game six times this year entering this outing.
• The opposing Guardians offense has a collective .250 batting average, and is 16th in the league with 588 total hits and 20th in MLB play with 309 runs scored. It has the 18th-ranked slugging percentage (.387) and ranks 28th in home runs (54) in all of MLB.
• Smeltzer has thrown 11 innings, giving up one earned run on six hits while striking out five against the Guardians this season.

Guardians Starter Zach Plesac

• The Guardians will hand the ball to Plesac (2-5) for his 14th start of the season.
• The right-hander’s last start was on Thursday, when he tossed six innings while giving up one earned run on three hits in a matchup with the Minnesota Twins.
• The 27-year-old has pitched in 13 games this season with an ERA of 4.17 and 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings, with an opponent batting average of .256.
• He’s looking to extend his five-game quality start streak.
• Plesac has five starts in a row of five innings or more.
• The Twins rank sixth in MLB with a .252 batting average this season. They have a team slugging percentage that ranks seventh in the league (.414) and 86 home runs.
• The Twins have gone 3-for-21 with a home run and an RBI in one game against the right-hander this season.
• The 27-year-old’s 4.17 ERA ranks 46th, 1.241 WHIP ranks 38th, and 6.1 K/9 ranks 56th among qualified pitchers in the majors this season.

Twins Betting Picks & Insights

• This season, the Twins have won 30 out of the 47 games, or 63.8%, in which they’ve been favored.
• Minnesota has a record of 30-17 in games where oddsmakers favor them by at least -110 on the moneyline.
• The Twins have a 52.4% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• So far this season, Minnesota and its opponents have hit the over in 35 of their 75 games with a total.
• In 75 games with a spread this season, the Twins are 35-40-0 ATS.

Guardians Betting Picks & Insights

• The Guardians have won in 18, or 43.9%, of the 41 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
• This season, Cleveland has come away with a win 17 times in 40 chances when named as an underdog of at least -109 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Guardians have a 52.2% chance of walking away with the win.
• Cleveland and their opponents have gone over in 36 of their 74 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
• The Guardians are 39-35-0 against the spread in their 74 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Twins Leaders & Batting Stats

• Arraez has accumulated a team-high batting average of .345.
• Of all hitters in MLB, Arraez ranks 201st in homers and 140th in RBI.
• Byron Buxton’s 19 home runs and 35 runs batted in are both team-highs.
• Buxton ranks seventh in home runs in the majors, and 60th in RBI.
• Max Kepler has 11 doubles, a triple, seven home runs and 33 walks while batting .240.
• Gio Urshela is batting .261 with 13 doubles, a triple, six home runs and 20 walks.
• Urshela has recorded at least one hit in two straight games. During his last five outings he is hitting .263 with three doubles, a walk and three RBI.

Guardians Leaders & Batting Stats

• Jose Ramirez has managed a team-high 16 home runs and has driven in 63 runs.
• Among all hitters in MLB, Ramirez is 17th in home runs and third in RBI.
• Amed Rosario has 10 doubles, five triples, two home runs and 12 walks while batting .275.
• Rosario ranks 285th in home runs and 193rd in RBI among all batters in MLB.
• Gimenez has a team-best batting average of .318.
• Josh Naylor is hitting .277 with 13 doubles, eight home runs and 15 walks.