Baseball season is officially upon us for 2022. From seasoned veterans who have been gambling on baseball games for years, all the way to newcomers, spring brings new hope to the table.
A number often seen in baseball betting is 1.5. This run spread works for every single game. Understanding why it is used, and how sportsbooks calculate everything going into a bet can give people a better idea of doing it the right way.
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What Does +1.5 Mean in Baseball Betting?
A +1.5 in baseball betting means that a team is an underdog in the contest. Depending on the payout at +1.5, they could be a considerable underdog to win the game. That bet wins if the team wins, or if they only lose by one run.
Almost always, the other team gets -1.5 as their run spread. In that scenario, picking that team ends up a winner if the team wins by two runs or more.
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Why Do Sportsbooks Stick With 1.5 as the Run Spread?
There are several reasons why sportsbooks use 1.5 as the run spread in baseball gambling. First, baseball is a low-scoring game, so there is less chance of a blowout than in other sports. The 1.5-run spread gives the underdog a better chance of winning, which attracts more bettors to the game. Keep in mind that the underdog always has a solid chance of winning or at least covering in baseball on any given night. It also puts that little bit of doubt in a gambler’s head that it will be a close game rather than a blowout. That helps bookmakers make more money if they set the line at 1.5 runs.
Some matchups would be better off having a run line of 2.5 or even 3.5 runs if it’s a mismatch. In other cases, a true toss-up makes sense. However, it usually just makes it harder for them to adjust everything. It’s better to change the odds to 1.5 for every contest, adjusting the payout. If they left it at a 1-run spread, it would cause some complications.
How are Baseball Spreads Calculated?
Every sports handicapper has its approach to calculating baseball spreads, but it’s becoming increasingly challenging to make them accurate thanks to increasing variables.
What variables play the biggest role in setting the favorites and underdogs, as well as calculating the payout? This is what handicappers look at.
Quality of Teams
As obvious as it sounds, the number one factor is looking at the quality of the two teams. If one of the worst teams in baseball is going up against a World Series favorite, they are likely going to be an underdog in any game. Gamblers have a pretty good idea of the good and bad teams heading in, so there should be no shockers in this category.
Starting Pitchers
Odds can change considerably based on who gets the start for both teams. At the beginning of the year, baseball teams are on the same schedule with their starting pitchers. The aces throw on Opening Day, followed by the number two starters, and so forth. However, by the middle of the year, there could be plenty of games where an ace goes up against a #5 starter on the other team.
Starting pitchers don’t throw nearly as much as they did in the past, but they still impact betting lines. Even if they only throw five or six innings, they will make a pretty big imprint on the game.
Bullpen Quality
A bullpen is used in almost every baseball game these days. Complete games are virtually a thing of the past, so teams rely on a bullpen to get the job done. Teams with a consistent bullpen will keep games closer than those still looking to sort everything out.
Bullpen quality can change from time to time, as availability is always evolving. Some players won’t have availability for certain contacts because they threw so much earlier in the week. Teams with several games in a row could see themselves having a depleted bullpen.
Always pay attention to arm availability before a contest to see if there’s an edge in that regard. It’s something that sportsbooks are paying more attention to themselves, but advanced gamblers have found that they can get a bit of an edge by understanding bullpen quality and current health.
Offensive Output
Pitching largely dictates how the game goes, but offense matters as well. Teams with great offensive output in recent games usually find ways to keep it going. Take a look to see how the two lineups perform against different teams.
Injury and rest issues also pop up with position players. The average position player is much less likely to need a full game off, but it does happen from time to time. Pay close attention to what happened in the previous few games. If a player is slumping, or it’s a day game right after a night game the night before, this could be an opportunity to rest an older player.
Injuries
Injuries are always part of the game. Baseball teams must list significant injuries, but there’s always day-to-day stuff that doesn’t pop up until right before game time. A lot of seasoned veterans in sports gambling will recommend that people wait until the end to make a pick because of this.
Sportsbooks are very fast about updating odds if necessary. If there seems to be an opportunity to jump on odds that haven’t been updated, take that step.
Home vs. Away
Home-field advantage has always been viewed as a real thing in sports. Some sports see home-field advantage more than others, and baseball is one that usually doesn’t see too much of a change. However, historically, home teams win about 54% of games played.
Why is home-field advantage a big deal? The atmosphere of a game can be one determining factor. Having an entire stadium behind the players can help sway momentum. There’s also the opportunity to get better rest and be around family when at home. A lot of players start to get worn out if they are in the middle of a long road trip.
If it’s in the middle or late part of the baseball season, look at how the two teams are doing and where the game is played.
Recent Schedule
Baseball is a 162-game schedule in six months. The teams that are good enough will also play a postseason. This can be very taxing on the body, and teams cherish their off days when they become available.
Baseball teams coming off of an off day are more likely to be fresh and ready to go in a contest. Take a look at the recent schedule and results of the two teams before placing a bet. If one team is in the middle of a road trip and hasn’t had an off day in close to two weeks, they won’t be that close to a team that just had a day off. This is a great equalizer within the baseball schedule.
Alternatives to Run Lines in Baseball Betting
Not everyone is going to love using the run line in baseball. While it tends to make the two sides a bit more even, it’s not always easy for people to take close losses because of the spread.
There are a couple of other common ways to bet on baseball on a game-by-game basis. These are worth looking into for anyone who is a fan.
Straight Money Line Baseball Bets
Instead of having a money line associated with a run spread, there are straight money line baseball bets to explore. This means that betting on the favorite will not pay out nearly as much, but there’s no fear of accidentally losing because of a one-run game.
Money line bets exist in every other major team sport out there. They are listed in a variety of formats, and most websites will allow users to switch to the one they are most comfortable with.
Over/Under
An over/under baseball bet forces a person to look beyond actually predicting who wins. Instead, the prediction is basically whether or not the two teams will have an offense that night or not.
In baseball terms, a lot of this comes down to analyzing the pitching staff going up against offenses. If two teams are throwing their ace that night, there’s a chance that it’s a low-scoring affair. If the two teams have depleted bullpens and they are at the back of a rotation, the offenses could have their day.
Why the 1.5 Run Spread is Here to Stay
Unless baseball offense jumps to new levels, sportsbooks are pretty confident with the 1.5-run spread. Gamblers coming from football and basketball might feel it’s a bit lazy that every run spread is +1.5 or -1.5, but the payouts do still evolve. With as many one-run games as there are in baseball, it adds an extra element of gambling prowess to have success.
Don’t expect anything to change at this point with so many sportsbooks having regulars placing wagers on games. Anyone who doesn’t like the run spread can always opt for different ways to gamble on baseball.