In 2018, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes put together one of the most impressive seasons in NFL history. The Kansas City quarterback threw for 50 touchdowns on his way to the NFL MVP. The question is whether he will repeat as the league’s top player?
It is likely that in his third season there will be some dramatic improvement, but can he put together the same kind of season? Will he have a better campaign as a slew of quarterbacks are looking to supplant Mahomes, including the Packers Aaron Rodgers, the Browns Baker Mayfield, the Eagles Carson Wentz, and the Saints Drew Brees.
There are a lot of outstanding options out there, but oddsmakers seem to believe that only quarterbacks will receive serious consideration. The top 18 most likely players to receive the NFL MVP award are quarterbacks. We have provided you with who will likely win the Super Bowl this year, so now here is a list of the top five most likely. Theodds of them winning is listed in parentheses.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (+550)
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Well, what can the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback do for an encore? After playing sparingly in his rookie season, Mahomes took over the Kansas City job and became an MVP. He threw for 5,097 yards with 50 touchdowns and a gaudy 113.8 quarterback rating. The Chiefs QB was the runaway selection for the MVP, helping lead his team to a 12-4-0 record and a trip to the AFC championship game.
While some quarterbacks slump in their second season as the full-time starter, don’t expect that from Mahomes. Barring an injury, he is one of the most electric players in the league, not only able to make big plays with his arm but also with his feet.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (+1000)
The Packers underwent a massive facelift in the off-season, as Matt LaFleur became the new head coach for Green Bay. Many were believing that Rodgers was becoming stagnant under former head coach Mike McCarthy, and a change of leadership might be just what the former MVP needs to recapture his former glory.
It is important to understand that Rodgers had an outstanding 2018 season, throwing for 25 touchdowns with just two interceptions. The problem was that the Packers just weren’t that good. That will likely change the season and, with a healthy Aaron Rodgers and a healthy offensive line, this team could be a real force in the NFC. This could make the Packers quarterback a likely choice for MVP.
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns (+1100)
It is hard to believe this, but oddsmakers are hyped about the Cleveland Browns. The team that was 0-16 just two seasons ago is generating a lot of buzz, and Mayfield is a big reason for all of that excitement.
Before you start wondering what we’re smoking here, consider that Mayfield had a solid rookie season, throwing for 3,725 yards and 27 touchdowns while completing 63.8% of his passes. He adds a big weapon in former New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham and will have one of the best defenses in the AFC.
If you include the fact that the Browns kept their offensive coordinator from last season (Freddie Kitchens) then it is easy to see how Mayfield could have the same kind of impact in Cleveland that Mahomes had in Kansas City.
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles (+1100)
While Wentz has put up some good numbers over the last two seasons, they have been two years where injuries have kept him from staying on the field. Wentz threw for 21 touchdowns and 3074 yards last season, but he also missed five games. Those are still fairly impressive numbers for a guy who only played in 11 contests.
His knee injury looks to be completely healed, and there appears to be no issues with the stress fracture in his back. He was on a pace for 40 touchdowns and 4000 yards when the ACL injury wiped out the last three contests of the 2017 season.
He could definitely reach those numbers this season and doesn’t have a group of well-known weapons around him. That means that his numbers are going to be elevated because of the lack of talent. It’s the same kind of consideration that Tom Brady receives each year.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (+1200)
Amid all the talk about Mahomes, Brees had one of the most impressive seasons in NFL history. It was impressive that the Kansas City quarterback threw for 50 touchdowns, but Brees completed 74.4% of his passes, the third straight season he completed better than 70% of his attempts, the only quarterback in NFL history to reach that mark.
Brees led his team to a 13-2-0 record under center and it would have been a Super Bowl season had it not been for a missed pass interference call. The New Orleans quarterback is 40 years old but has been getting better, and he has one of the deepest offenses in the league.
He may not throw for 50 touchdowns, but he could easily have a 40 touchdown, 4,500 yard, 77% completion rate season. Those are the kind of numbers that would be hard to ignore.
Others to Consider
These are the five likely candidates for the NFL MVP, but there are some others that deserve some consideration. While this next group of five is not necessarily listed according to oddsmakers best chances to become NFL MVP, these are the five we consider to be real contenders.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots (+1600)
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans (+1800)
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (+2500)
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (+3000)
Ezekiel Elliot, Dallas Cowboys (+5000)