Why is it So Hard To Win a Football Bet?

by | Jan 26, 2023

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Even though many people love betting on football, it can be quite difficult to win a bet. This is because of all the different factors that need to be considered when making a bet. Not only do team records and previous games matter, but the weather and injuries to key players also matter. People also have to consider things like home-field advantage, referee decisions, and so much more.

Why is it So Hard to Win a Football Bet?

Bets on football, specifically the NFL, usually are determined by very slim margins. Accurately predicting the league week after week takes a ton of research and luck to pull off.

The Biggest Factors Making Football Betting Hard

A few factors stand out from the rest as far as why football is so hard to bet on successfully. While some make a living betting on the NFL, predictions blow up all the time.

Parity

The NFL is set up in a way to encourage parity as much as possible. There’s a salary cap, incentives to lose by getting a top pick in the next draft, and so much more. What the league is going for is a chance for all 32 teams to be competitive.

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With so much parity, it means that there’s enough talent on any team to beat the opposition on a given day. If an underdog team gets a few breaks, they can build up momentum and pull off a surprise victory.

There’s less parity in college football, but it’s also less predictable. The college game involves so many young and inexperienced players that they lack the consistency a lot of times to win and cover (even top 10 teams in the country).

Injuries

The violent nature of the NFL makes injuries a very real issue. Going into any given game, there’s a chance that a star player goes down and is out for at least that game moving forward. All of a sudden, a favorite team doesn’t look so intimidating any longer.

Trying to predict injuries can be an impossible task. Once a wager is placed, all the person can do is hope that everyone stays healthy.

Time and Score

There are a ton of ways for teams to manipulate time depending on the score. If an underdog team has the lead, they’ll look to milk the clock as much as possible. This leads to a low-scoring game. However, if they are behind, they’ll need to do whatever possible to try to make a comeback. This could mean airing the ball out and hoping for big plays.

The start of a football game heavily dictates how everything else flows later on. A game might seem like it’ll play out one way, but after the first quarter, the entire approach changes.

Home-Field Advantage

Home-field advantage has always mattered to some degree in sports. For football, it seems to play a huge role. This is more of a college football factor than the NFL, but rabid fanbases can change how a game plays quite a bit.

The general rule is that a home team gets about 3 points on the spread. That means if the two teams are even, the home team will be a -3 favorite in betting. Factor in weather, especially if a warm-weather team plays somewhere cold, and the advantage becomes even bigger.

The Sportsbook Advantage

This isn’t particular to football, but sportsbooks always had the advantage over players because of the vig sportsbooks give to themselves. If it’s a true 50/50 matchup, there won’t be a 50/50 payout. The sportsbooks always take a little bit of the percentage, which ensures that they win in the long run.

While frustrating, this is part of the business. Every single sportsbook has very similar vig setups. It’s what gamblers have to live with.

Making Football Bets Easier

Are there ways to make football bets easier? While it’s not that easy to change an entire sport, being patient with opportunities to bet at the right time matters. If nothing looks good during a particular weekend, don’t bet. A disciplined approach works better than forcing opportunities.

People still love the sport, and disciplined gamblers have made a solid amount o money on pro and college football. Don’t bet emotionally, and football bets might just pay off.

 

 

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