Yankees vs. Astros Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 6/30/2022

Expect the long ball when Aaron Judge (29 HR) and the New York Yankees (56-20) take on Yordan Alvarez (23 HR) and the Houston Astros (47-27) at Minute Maid Park, beginning at 6:10 PM ET. The Yankees are -123 favorites on the moneyline for the matchup. Luis Severino will get the ball for New York while Houston counter with Luis Garcia.

Yankees vs. Astros Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Yankees vs. Astros

Our best bet is the Astros on the moneyline at +105 after digging through all of the key trends and stats for this matchup. Our computer projects the scoring will over the total of 8 runs.

Our computer pick: Houston Astros (+105) and Over (8)

Yankees vs. Astros Game Info

• New York Yankees probable starting pitcher: Luis Severino
• Houston Astros probable starting pitcher: Luis Garcia
• Game Day: Thursday, June 30, 2022
• Game Time: 6:10 PM ET
• Location: Houston, Texas
• Stadium: Minute Maid Park

New York Yankees vs Houston Astros Pitching Matchup

Yankees Starter Luis Severino

• Severino makes the start for the Yankees, his 14th of the season. He is 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA and 87 strikeouts in 72 innings pitched.
• The righty last pitched on Friday against the Houston Astros, when he threw 6 2/3 innings, allowing three earned runs while giving up five hits.
• In 13 games this season, the 28-year-old has an ERA of 3.38, with 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .211 against him.
• Severino is looking to record his sixth quality start of the year.
• Severino will try to pitch five or more innings for his eighth straight appearance. He’s averaging 5.2 frames per outing.
• He meets an Astros offense that ranks 19th in the league with 320 runs while batting .238 as a squad. It has a collective .418 slugging percentage (fifth in MLB play) and has hit a total of 103 home runs (fourth in MLB).
• Severino has thrown six innings, giving up three earned runs on five hits while striking out seven against the Astros this season.

Astros Starter Luis Garcia

• Garcia (5-5) will take to the mound for the Astros and make his 14th start of the season.
• The right-hander gave up three earned runs in 5 2/3 innings pitched on Wednesday, June 22 in his last outing, a matchup with the New York Mets.
• The 25-year-old has pitched to a 3.55 ERA this season with 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 2.4 walks per nine across 13 games.
• He has five quality starts in 13 chances this season.
• Garcia has pitched five or more innings in two straight games and will look to extend that streak.
• The Yankees rank first in MLB with 383 runs scored this season. They have a .238 batting average this campaign with 126 home runs (first in the league).

Yankees Betting Picks & Insights

• This season, the Yankees have won 51 out of the 70 games, or 72.9%, in which they’ve been favored.
• This season, New York has won 47 of its 65 games, or 72.3%, when favored by at least -123 on the moneyline.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Yankees have a 55.2% chance to win.
• New York and its opponents have hit the over in 33 of their 75 games with a total this season.
• The Yankees are 38-37-0 ATS in their 75 games with a spread this season.

Astros Betting Picks & Insights

• The Astros have been chosen as underdogs in 14 games this year and have walked away with the win six times (42.9%) in those games.
• This season, Houston has come away with a win four times in 10 chances when named as an underdog of at least +105 or longer on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Astros have a 48.8% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
• Contests with Houston have gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 24 of 74 chances this season.
• In 74 games with a line this season, the Astros have a mark of 38-36-0 against the spread.

Yankees Leaders & Batting Stats

• Not only does Judge lead the Yankees in hitting with his .290 average, he also is their premier power option with 29 home runs and 59 RBI.
• Including all MLB batters, Judge is 27th in batting average, 26th in on-base percentage, and third in slugging.
• Anthony Rizzo is batting .216 with 10 doubles, a triple, 20 home runs and 35 walks.
• Rizzo is sixth in homers and 12th in RBI on the season.
• DJ LeMahieu has 13 doubles, seven home runs and 35 walks while batting .266.
• Giancarlo Stanton is batting .240 with five doubles, 19 home runs and 30 walks.
• Stanton has recorded at least one hit in three straight games. In his last five games he is batting .222 with four home runs, a walk and seven RBI.

Astros Leaders & Batting Stats

• Alvarez leads the lineup with a batting average of .316, while pacing the Astros in home runs, with 23 and runs batted in with 56.
• Among all hitters in MLB, Alvarez ranks second in homers and sixth in RBI.
• Kyle Tucker is batting .256 with 11 doubles, 15 home runs and 37 walks.
• Tucker ranks 20th among all batters in the big leagues in home runs, and 11th in RBI.
• Alex Bregman has 15 doubles, nine home runs and 44 walks while hitting .241.
• Jose Altuve is batting .269 with 13 doubles, 15 home runs and 26 walks.