Yankees vs. Pirates Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/6/2022

The New York Yankees (58-23) will be out to avoid the sweep when they visit the Pittsburgh Pirates (33-47) to complete a two-game series. Bookmakers have listed the Yankees as -237 favorites for the series finale, while the Pirates are +197 underdogs. New York’s Luis Severino gets the start, and he’ll go against Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller.

Yankees vs. Pirates Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Yankees vs. Pirates

Our best bet is the Pirates on the moneyline at +197 after analyzing all of the key stats and trends for this matchup. Our computer projects the scoring will over the total of 9 runs.

Our computer pick: Pittsburgh Pirates (+197) and Over (9)

Yankees vs. Pirates Game Info

• New York Yankees probable starting pitcher: Luis Severino
• Pittsburgh Pirates probable starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
• Game Day: Wednesday, July 6, 2022
• Game Time: 7:05 PM ET
• Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• Stadium: PNC Park

New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pitching Matchup

Yankees Starter Luis Severino

• Severino (4-3 with a 3.35 ERA and 91 strikeouts in 78 innings pitched) makes the start for the Yankees, his 15th of the season.
• His last time out was on Thursday against the Houston Astros, when the right-hander threw 6 2/3 innings, surrendering two earned runs while allowing three hits.
• In 14 games this season, the 28-year-old has amassed a 3.35 ERA and 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings, while allowing a batting average of .206 to opposing batters.
• Severino is looking for his third quality start in a row.
• Severino is aiming for his ninth straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.2 innings per appearance on the hill.
• The opposing Pirates offense has the 28th-ranked slugging percentage (.373) and ranks 14th in MLB play with 88 home runs. It has a collective .222 batting average, and is 29th in MLB with 579 total hits and 28th in MLB action scoring 296 runs.

Pirates Starter Mitch Keller

• Keller (2-5) will take the mound for the Pirates, his 14th start of the season.
• The right-hander gave up five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings pitched on Wednesday in his last outing, a matchup with the Washington Nationals.
• The 26-year-old has pitched to a 5.14 ERA this season with 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 4 walks per nine across 15 games.
• He has earned a quality start three times in 13 starts this season.
• Keller has started 13 games this season, and he’s lasted five or more innings seven times. He averages 4.2 innings per appearance.
• The Yankees rank 20th in MLB with a .237 batting average this season. They have a team slugging percentage that ranks fourth in the league (.430) and 133 home runs.

Yankees Betting Picks & Insights

• The Yankees have won 53, or 69.7%, of the 76 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
• This season, New York has won 11 of its 12 games, or 91.7%, when favored by at least -237 on the moneyline.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Yankees have a 70.3% chance to win.
• Games involving New York have gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 34 of 81 chances this season.
• The Yankees have an ATS record of 40-41-0 in 81 games with a spread this season.

Pirates Betting Picks & Insights

• The Pirates have been chosen as underdogs in 64 games this year and have walked away with the win 24 times (37.5%) in those games.
• This year, Pittsburgh has won four of 10 games when listed as at least +197 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Pirates have a 33.7% chance of walking away with the win.
• Contests with Pittsburgh have gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 34 of 80 chances this season.
• The Pirates have posted a record of 38-42-0 against the spread this season.

Yankees Leaders & Batting Stats

• Aaron Judge’s 29 home runs and 60 RBI both lead the Yankees, in addition to his team-high .281 average.
• Judge’s home runs put him first in MLB, and he ranks fifth in RBI.
• Anthony Rizzo is batting .219 with 10 doubles, a triple, 22 home runs and 37 walks.
• Rizzo ranks fifth in homers and 16th in RBI among all major league batters this season.
• DJ LeMahieu has 13 doubles, eight home runs and 39 walks while hitting .265.
• Giancarlo Stanton has five doubles, 20 home runs and 31 walks while batting .237.

Pirates Leaders & Batting Stats

• Bryan Reynolds paces the Pirates with 15 home runs and 32 runs batted in, while posting a team-best batting average of .256.
• Reynolds’ home run total places him 29th in MLB, and he ranks 111th in RBI.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has 15 doubles, two triples, three home runs and 29 walks while hitting .252.
• Hayes ranks 252nd in home runs and 162nd in RBI among all MLB hitters this year.
• Daniel Vogelbach has eight doubles, a triple, 11 home runs and 31 walks while hitting .235.
• Jack Suwinski is hitting .227 with nine doubles, 14 home runs and 20 walks.