Yankees vs. Reds Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/14/2022

The New York Yankees (61-26) and the Cincinnati Reds (33-54) meet in the rubber match of a three-game series on Thursday at 7:05 PM ET. The Yankees are -201 favorites on the moneyline to win the series over the Reds (+168). Nestor Cortes starts for New York while Luis Castillo is Cincinnati’s starter for the contest.

Yankees vs. Reds Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Yankees vs. Reds

Our best bet is the Reds on the moneyline at +168 after taking a look at all of the key statistics and trends for this matchup. Our computer projects the scoring will over the total of 8 runs.

Our computer pick: Cincinnati Reds (+168) and Over (8)

Yankees vs. Reds Game Info

• New York Yankees probable starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes
• Cincinnati Reds probable starting pitcher: Luis Castillo
• Game Day: Thursday, July 14, 2022
• Game Time: 7:05 PM ET
• Location: The Bronx, New York
• Stadium: Yankee Stadium

New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds Pitching Matchup

Yankees Starter Nestor Cortes

• The Yankees are sending Nestor Cortes Jr. (7-3) out to make his 17th start of the season. He is 7-3 with a 2.74 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 88 2/3 innings pitched.
• The lefty’s most recent appearance was on Friday against the Boston Red Sox, when he threw 3 2/3 innings, surrendering four earned runs while giving up eight hits.
• In 16 games this season, the 27-year-old has a 2.74 ERA and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings, while allowing a batting average of .211 to opposing batters.
• Cortes is looking to record his seventh quality start of the season.
• Cortes has pitched five or more innings in a game 11 times this season heading into this matchup.
• He meets a Reds offense that ranks 19th in the league with 371 runs while batting .239 as a squad. It has a collective .377 slugging percentage (23rd in MLB action) and has hit a total of 80 home runs (23rd in MLB).
• The 27-year-old ranks 14th in ERA (2.74), 13th in WHIP (1.026), and 14th in K/9 (9.6) among qualifying pitchers in MLB play this season.

Reds Starter Luis Castillo

• The Reds’ Castillo (3-4) will make his 13th start of the season.
• The right-hander gave up one earned run in 7 2/3 innings pitched on Friday in his last outing, a matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays.
• The 29-year-old has pitched in 12 games this season with an ERA of 2.92 and 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings, with an opponent batting average of .208.
• He’s looking to extend his three-game quality start streak.
• Castillo has 11 starts in a row of five innings or more.
• The Yankees rank 14th in MLB with a .244 batting average this season. They have a team slugging percentage that ranks second in the league (.441) and 146 home runs.

Yankees Betting Picks & Insights

• This season, the Yankees have been favored 83 times and won 57, or 68.7%, of those games.
• New York has a record of 28-4, a 87.5% win rate, when favored by -201 or more by sportsbooks this season.
• The Yankees have a 66.8% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• New York and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 40 of their 88 opportunities.
• The Yankees are 42-46-0 against the spread in their 88 chances this season.

Reds Betting Picks & Insights

• The Reds have been chosen as underdogs in 70 games this year and have walked away with the win 27 times (38.6%) in those games.
• This season, Cincinnati has been victorious six times in 21 chances when named as an underdog of at least +168 or longer on the moneyline.
• The Reds have an implied victory probability of 37.3% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.
• Cincinnati and their opponents have gone over in 47 of their 90 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
• In 90 games with a line this season, the Reds have a mark of 42-48-0 against the spread.

Yankees Leaders & Batting Stats

• Aaron Judge paces the Yankees with 30 home runs and 65 runs batted in, while accumulating a team-high batting average of .282.
• Among all hitters in MLB, Judge’s home run total ranks him first, and his RBI tally ranks him fourth.
• Anthony Rizzo is batting .224 with 13 doubles, a triple, 22 home runs and 38 walks.
• Rizzo is eighth in home runs and 13th in RBI among all MLB hitters this season.
• Rizzo has three straight games with at least one hit. In his last five games he is hitting .211 with three doubles, three walks and five RBI.
• DJ LeMahieu is hitting .271 with 13 doubles, eight home runs and 44 walks.
• LeMahieu has at least one base hit in two straight games. In his last five games he is hitting .368 with three walks.
• Gleyber Torres is batting .275 with 18 doubles, a triple, 13 home runs and 22 walks.
• Torres has recorded at least one hit in six games in a row. During his last 10 games he is hitting .429 with five doubles, six walks and six RBI.

Reds Leaders & Batting Stats

• Brandon Drury paces the Reds in home runs (18), runs batted in (50) and has posted a team-best batting average of .273.
• Among all hitters in the majors, Drury’s home run total is 19th and his RBI tally ranks 25th.
• Drury brings a hitting streak of five games into this matchup. During his last five outings he is batting .409 with three doubles, a home run, two walks and three RBI.
• Tommy Pham has 10 doubles, a triple, 11 home runs and 39 walks while batting .246.
• Pham ranks 69th overall in home runs and 91st in RBI this season.
• Kyle Farmer is batting .267 with 17 doubles, five home runs and 18 walks.
• Tyler Stephenson has eight doubles, six home runs and 11 walks while hitting .320.